43M Vote Early as Cost of Living and $11.2B Ad Blitz Define Midterms

Some 43 million Americans have already cast ballots across 47 states and Washington, D.C. — nearly 10 million more than at the same point in the 2022 midterms — ahead of Tuesday's Nov. 3 elections deciding all 435 U.S. House seats, 35 Senate seats, 36 governorships, and more than 6,100 state legislative contests, according to an Associated Press and Patch report by Beth Dalbey in Patch Walnut Creek.

Cost of Living (36%) and Corruption (12%) Top Voter Concerns

Voters across the country cite high grocery, gasoline, and record diesel prices — alongside tariff policies and the economic effects of the conflict with Iran — as their primary concern. AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler called rising prices and lagging wages "a double whammy," while former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore noted that higher gasoline prices driven by the Iran conflict pose a major hurdle for Republicans.

In an Oct. 22–24 online Harris Poll conducted for The Guardian among 2,065 U.S. adults (including 1,481 likely midterm voters):

• 36% named the cost of living as their top election issue, followed by government corruption at 12% and immigration at 9%.
• Nearly 9 in 10 Americans said corruption is a problem, and 76% said elected officials care more about enriching themselves than improving the economy for ordinary Americans (40% said Republicans have a bigger corruption problem, 21% pointed to Democrats, and 32% blamed both parties equally).

Early Voting Surges and the Battle for the House and Senate

In states that report party registration, roughly 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have voted early. Early turnout jumped 50% in Texas to more than 6.3 million voters (up from 4.2 million four years ago), rose more than 30% in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Kansas, and climbed 83% in South Carolina.

While Republicans hold a 6-seat Senate advantage, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated 7 Senate races as "Toss Ups": Alaska (Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan vs. Democrat Mary Peltola), Iowa (Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek), Kansas (Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton), Maine (Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson), Michigan (Mike Rogers vs. Abdul El-Sayed), Ohio (Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown), and Texas (Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico). In the House, where Democrats hold 214 seats and need 218 for a majority, Cook favors Democrats in 222 races with 18 toss-ups and projects Democrats could win as many as 240 seats.

Record $11.2 Billion Ad Blitz, $5,000 Check Pledge, and 1,000 DOJ Monitors

According to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, campaigns, parties, and outside groups have spent or reserved more than $11.2 billion in political advertising — up from $8.9 billion in 2022 and projected to reach $11.6 billion by the end of the cycle. The Texas Senate contest alone has drawn over $560 million in ad reservations. The 50 largest individual donors have contributed more than $2.7 billion, led by Elon Musk with $446 million (including $216 million to his America PAC and $168 million to the Senate Leadership Fund). Meanwhile, President Trump has promised $5,000 checks to every adult American (a $1.2 trillion proposal requiring congressional approval) and $8 billion in farm aid for diesel costs if Republicans hold both chambers.

On Election Day, when the first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky and most states close between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. Eastern (with Alaska closing at 1 a.m. Wednesday), the Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 election monitors across all 50 states, while the interfaith coalition Faiths United in Saving Democracy has recruited more than 1,200 volunteer poll chaplains across 9 states.